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The president is not seeking to introduce the measures through a full bill, as the legislative process in Congress could reduce their immediate political impact ahead of the elections.

Some factions within the government, especially the Ministry of Finance, are resisting more drastic measures. The Ministry of Finance, responsible for regulating sports betting and online gaming, understands the sector’s importance to the economy. Finance Minister Dario Durigan’s difficulty lies in convincing Lula that a well-regulated activity is important for public finances. Lula has said, in line with critics of the sector, that if it were up to him, he would end betting in Brazil.

The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.

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The proposal does not explicitly prohibit the display of betting brands on team jerseys, but some city councillors want to include this in the bill.

Clubs fear the measure will jeopardise revenue from betting company sponsorships. Corinthians (Esportes da Sorte), Palmeiras (Sportingbet), and São Paulo (Superbet) alone hold contracts worth BRL350 million annually with betting firms.

One concern is the measure might force clubs to host matches outside the city to maintain their advertising agreements.

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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.